Modelling the Business and Societal decisions under the impact of COVID-19
Call for papers for: Journal of Modelling in Management
Submissions open: 11th November 2021
Submission deadline: 26th February 2022
Present COVID-19 Issues:
Multiple shiftings in a economies, societies, and businesses around the world have been witnessed since last one year as an impact of Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. A recent report (WHO, 2021) of the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that the researchers have addressed multiple healthcare issues to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 transmission. Some of them include planning of resources such as staff, vaccinations and testing kit distributions under uncertainity (Roda et al. 2020). It also helps in analyzing widespread of pandemic and formulation of strategies pertaining to quarantine and isolations through agent based modelling (Hellewell et al. 2020), social distancing measures with system dynamics (Robertson, 2019), and hospital beds’ capacities estimation by queuing model (Wood et al. 2020). Though, all these models help to address such issues during the lockdowns and unlock periods to control the situations with lesser infection spreads (between March 2020-March 2021). However, recently many countries are experiencing the next wave of COVID-19 with newer stent which was again unexpected. So, rerunning such models with more data using simulation may help to control and manage the present situation more accurately to retain social balancing and work normalcy. Still, many government authorities are seeking decision supportive models that assist them with policies for lifting up the economy post pandemic. The game theories and econometric models are applicable to forecast and assess the impact of such problems on the economy (Bhattarai, 2015). However, the regulatory egencies and economists are not aware with, how much spending on healthcare research, development, and management affect economical growth? Hence, it is thought that there is a need of dedicated research theme that looks forward the post COVID-19 management challenges through modeling approach.
Umost industrial supply chains have been disrupted due to lack of raw materials that enforced businesses to either suspend or slow down the production (Stauffer et al. 2018). As a result of this the supply and distribution of food, essential commodities and healthcare services have also been inturrupted. Although companies following lean manufacturing strategy have been badly affected, yet simulation may supplement them to survive (Abideen et al. 2021). The literature foundation has already been setup focusing on supply and risk mitiagations during disasters and pandemics (Maghsoudi et al. 2018). Sube et al. (2020) have re-design the public distribution policies to cater to efficient supply of food and essentials, and suggested further detailed investigations using probability and system dynamics models. Recently, logistics models have been adopted to distribute necessary commodities (Sakiani et al. 2020) and to collect the infectious COVID-19 wastages (Valizadeh and Mozafari, 2021). But, now these solutions are proved inadequate as the authorities have relaxed the movements to lifting up the economies. On other hand, the virus spread is again become uncontrolled as counter effect of this cause. Futher, the civilians and officers are enforced to work under this jeopardy pandemic. So, a rational and effective policy to model vaccination allocation (Singh and Singh, 2020) and healthcare items’ distribution management is must to banance the societal necessity. Also, the government and medical authorities are now watching the situation more cautiously to control widespread along with normalcy retention. Statistical and agent based models are helpful here assessing the impact time-by-time to take decisions controlling movements.
The public transportation is becoming more complicated to manage under this relaxed conditions as the spread intensity and people movements differ by territories. The application of epidemiological modelling and analysis helps to understand this virus spread (Curie et al. 2020), but there is no clarity on safe and secure movements for a epidemically controlled travel in a pandemic environment. The application of queuing and stoachastic models along with simulation validation would supplement to re-design day-to-day operating policies for continual planning of railways, banking, hospitals, sports, education institutes, and pilgrimage travel services. The migrants during lockdowns have shifted many business’ focus (Seetharaman, 2020) and encourage the MSMEs and enptrepreneurs with novel business opportunities. But, the pandemic ecosystem dosen’t allow them to work upon these ideas. Here, modelling and simulation play vital role to test business models for its proper adoption. Also, practically guidelines are require to be explored with harmonized humanitarian logistics models to control migrations (Dasaklis et al. 2012).
The data driven technological applications and prediction algorithms have help to analyse the people migrations and business shifts during COVID-19 outbreak (Mkansi et al. 2019). This adoption of technology is proved to be helpful in strategizing public health and organizational policies for pandemic situation, but such models are helpless in the absentia of situational data and its timely validation under the state of complete lockdown. Also, the supply chain, business and manufacturing shutoffs is not allowing the practitioners to visualize realistic scenarios under pandemic uncertainity (Ivanov and Dolgui, 2020). This could be reassessed by modeling the situation through MCDM and fuzzy approaches. Although, the societal and healthcare impacts of uncetainity due to COVID-19 could be very well analysed through the modelling approach (Wang and Flessa, 2020), the businesses are imposed with unforessen challeges and constraints. So far, limited studies exist emphasizing the machine learning models and algorithms in analyzing the impact of outbreak, but recently Arpaci et al. (2021) have recorded numerous cases upon this matter. Therefore, the combination of model-based and data-driven approaches would be helpful to assess underlying risks, disruptions, and business performance (Ivanov, 2020). Recently, Abideen et al. (2020) have explored how the simulation modelling could support businesses with more informed decisions and policy frameworks in the anticipation of its actual implementation.
So, some research questions need to be addressed are:
- Do contemporary research approaches such as game theories and econometric models are competent enough to speculate the unforeseen economical and business challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic?
- How spending on healthcare research and distribution of essential goods affects economical growth?
- How modelling-simulation could support with fair, effective and efficient management of vaccination distribution program?
- How technological applications and prediction tools help to analyse the business models and societal issues during and post COVID-19 outbreak?
- How the epidemiological modelling and analysis ensures safe and secure movements for a epidemically controlled travel in a pandemic environment?
- Is the pandemic situation have created opportunities for new businesses? If yes, can we test and validate different business scenarios through modelling before its actual implementation?
Focal contributors and addresses:
The functional scope of this issue focuses on analyzing HR, Accounts, Marketing, Operations, Supply chain, IT and allied decisions of the organization which are hampered due to COVID-19. Various businesses including manufacturing, logistics services, hospitality-tourism, pharma-healthcare, information technology, FMGC, agro and food products will be the addressable industries. The social organizations, government agencies and departments, strategists, economists, policymakers, and entrepreneurs are expected to impart by sharing their experiences and views on contemporary COVID-19 situation. The researchers may propose new theoretical models or apply existing ones by transforming them to identify unforeseen business challenges and support managers with informed decisions.
Aim of proposed theme:
The broad theme of this special issue revolves around assessing, modelling and analyzing the economical, societal and managerial implications of COVID-19. The objective is to draw meaningful conclusions and business policies by establishing the linkages between academic theories and industrial problems through modelling approach. Novel methods and models involving discrete events, agent based and stochastic simulation for such pandemic problems pertaining to businesses, society, economy, and government organizations are also welcome. The coverage may also include research articles of mathematical, statistical, empirical and case study approaches addressing COVID-19’s impact on business performance and allied issues (but not limited to) as listed below:
- Innovations and Business model navigations due to COVID-19
- MSME and Entrepreneur’s response to COVID-19
- Econometric Models and Macro-Micro level analysis to predict economies affected due to COVID-19
- System dynamics and agent based models to assess the government policies for lifting up the economy during and post pandemic
- Data Science and mining applications to analyse the business models during COVID-19 outbreak
- Probabilistic and Mathematical approaches to model storage and distribution of food, essential consumable products and services under uncertanties
- Redesigning supply chain models to ensure fair and effective vaccination distribution and healthcare management
- Simulation and Modelling of epidemically controlled business logistics and migrations
- Statistical and Empirical models to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on organizational management and human behavior
- Supportive models and expert systems for Marketing, Sales, Operations and allied business functions with informed decisions
- MCDM and fuzzy models to assess the social and business impact of COVID-19
- Technological models analyzing the managerial decisions during pandemics
Research value and contribution:
The outcome in form of research models are expected to be adopted by the practitioners to understand different unforeseen practice oriented scenarios under pandemic uncertainty. It also helps to envisage concrete decisions, policy framing and amendments by simulating business decisions and societal models analysing depicted situation in-prior before its actual implementation.
Prof. Bhavin Shah (Managing Guest Editor)
Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Sirmaur, Himachal Pradesh, India
Prof. Vikas Kumar
Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol – UK
Prof. Guilherme Frederico
Federal University of Paraná – UFPR, Curitiba - Brazil
Prof. Banu Y. Ekren
Yasar University, Üniversite Caddesi, No: 37-39, Ağaçlı Yol, Bornova, İzmir PK. 35100
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