Implications of The Russia-Ukraine conflict on The Global Financial Markets

Closes:
Guest editor(s)

Sabri Boubaker

,

Adel Sarea

,

Tonmoy Choudhury

,
Submission deadline extended: 31st December 2022

1. Prologue

The Russia-Ukraine dispute – the most significant conflict in Europe since the second world war comes at a sensitive time for the world economy. It has shattered hopes of a global economic recovery from the ravages of COVID‒19, at least in the short term. Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID‒19 outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern, the global economy is straining under a range of burdens: surging inflation and unemployment rates, tangled global supply chains, and tumbling financial markets (Kinateder et al., 2021, Hassan et al., 2021, Hassan et al., 2022, Batten et al., 2022). The Russia-Ukraine war has magnified each threat and complicated the potential solutions. The repercussions of this conflict are threatening the global economy, sparing uncertainty in financial markets, and making life more perilous for everyone worldwide (Wiseman and Mchugh, 2022). These implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the global economy and financial markets mainly come from three channels: economic sanctions, commodities prices, and supply-chain disruptions. This Special Issue aims to unveil these disruptions and implications to the national and global financial markets alike and investigate the impact of this war on the behavior of different economic agents. 

 

2. Implications to the financial markets  

Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s biggest producers and exporters of some food products. According to S&P Global Platts, these are the top two sunflower oil producers, respectively accounting for 60% of global production. According to JP Morgan, these countries also account for 28.9% of global wheat exports. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the supply chains in both countries. Due to sanctions, Russian exports are restricted, and Ukraine’s ports are closed due to war. The conflict has already raised the wheat price on the Chicago future exchange to 14-year highs (Josephs, 2022). Many European countries rely on Russian oil and gas to heat homes, power factories, and fill gas tanks. In just a few days, the conflict has further fuelled worldwide inflation hiking the price of oil, natural gas, and other staples (Cohen, 2022). The possible destruction of some transport infrastructure (notable ports in Ukraine) and financial sanctions on Russian exports have compounded the existing supply-chain issues due to COVID-19. Turkey’s decision to restrict transit through the Bosphorus and Ukraine’s decision to shut down commercial shipping means sea freight routes through the Black Sea will remain limited for an unknown period. This will directly affect grain shipments transiting Russian, Ukrainian, and possibly Romanian and Bulgarian ports. This restriction will have consequences for the whole world, especially China, relying on land-based routes through Russia (en route to Europe) during the coronavirus pandemic. Before the pandemic, 35% of global freight was transported by air. The decision of EU countries to close their airspace to Russian aircraft and cargo will severely hamper Russia-Europe and Europe-Asia air ties. Land-based trade routes will be equally affected by this conflict as transit through Russia will become extremely difficult (or impossible from a reputational, compliance, or safety perspective). These discussions justified the need for SI in the modern financial knowledge base.

 

3. Issues

Suggested topics for contributions include, but are not limited, to the following:  

  • The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global financial markets 

  • The effect of economic and financial sanctions on financial and commodity markets 

  • How do investors react to the financial uncertainty in the global financial markets? Should we expect ‘flight-to-quality’ and ‘flight-to-capital’ episodes? 

  • How should financial institutions respond to the possible credit crunch resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war? 

  • The role of safe havens and hedges during war crisis times  

  • Cross-industry and cross-border contagions due to the war crisis 

  • Contagion between the real and the financial economy in war crisis times 

  • Economic and financial lessons from history for the war times 

  • Asset management performance during the war crisis 

  • Interlinkages and spillovers of financial and financialised assets during war times 

 

Timeline

Open for submissions: April 1st, 2022
Last date to submit: June 30th, 2022 (early submissions are highly encouraged) 
The anticipated date for completion of the review process: April 15th, 2023 

 

Submission Guideline 

Authors should prepare their manuscript according to the “the Guide for Authors” available from the online submission page of the Journal. 

 

Guest Editors

Professor Sabri Boubaker 

EM Normandie Business School, France 

 

Associate Professor Adel Sarea 

Ahlia University, Bahrain 

 

Assistant Professor Tonmoy Choudhury 

King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia 

 

References 

  1. Akhtaruzzaman, M., Boubaker, S., Lucey, B. M., & Sensoy, A. (2021). Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis?. Economic Modelling, 102, 105588. 

  1. Batten, J. A., Choudhury, T., Kinateder, H. & Wagner, N. F. 2022. Volatility impacts on the European banking sector: GFC and COVID-19. Annals of Operations Research, 1-26. 

  1. Cohen, P. 2022. Within days, Russia’s War on Ukraine Squeezes the Global Economy. The New York Times. 

  1. Economist Intelligence. 2022. Global economic implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. 

  1. Hassan, M. K., Muneeza, A. & Sarea, A. M. 2022. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Islamic Finance: The Lessons Learned and the Way Forward. Towards a Post-Covid Global Financial System. Emerald Publishing Limited. 

  1. He, F., Lucey, B., & Wang, Z. (2021). Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market evidence from China-US trade conflict. Finance Research Letters, 40, 101753. 

  1. Josephs, J. 2022. Ukraine war is an economic catastrophe, warns World Bank [Online]. BBC News.  

  1. Kinateder, H., Campbell, R. & Choudhury, T. 2021. Safe haven in GFC versus COVID-19: 100 turbulent days in the financial markets. Finance Research Letters, Advance online publication. 

  1. Wiseman, P. & Mchugh, D. 2022. Economic dangers from Russia’s invasion ripple across the globe. AP News.