COVID, investment markets and real estate: cascading impacts or temporary adjustment?
Overview of special issue
In different ways, all property markets have been affected by the impact of COVID. More than ever, the inter linkages between different sectors has been highlighted as short-term “lockdown” behaviour has challenged many sectors whilst overnight long-term structural change has created an economy of winners and losers. The pandemic will end but the question of “when?” will be determined by the success, or otherwise, of the vaccine roll-out worldwide, the development of more effective treatments and the trend in society to live with the virus. It will be a combination of all three that will determine when markets return to a semblance of normality. This special issue will look at the impact on property investment market going forward
Key topic areas
- Global economy: Are the COVID-19 trade issues shifting investment prospects in ways that may last beyond the public health crisis?
- Real estate investment in time of disruption - what are cross-border RE capital flows saying about international risk/reward in COVID/post-COVID era?
- Has there been any discernible (i.e. measurable) shift in 'investment styles' (core, value-add, opportunistic) weightings amongst institutions in response to COVID-19 environment? Any related thinking about real estate portfolio structure?
- Property types: each of the major (and secondary) property types have been challenged in their own way, and are adapting in specifically different terms.
- What are the lessons up to now, and plans for the future? Conflicting imperatives? Opportunity to increase market share versus the search for yield in a disrupted real estate market.
- Public markets: is there a comparative advantage for REITs (in US and worldwide) in extreme/unexpected economic dislocation?
- Special servicing: "black swan risk" emerges unevenly across the spectrum of structured real estate finance. How are these being sorted out and managed?
- Are selection criteria shifting in any meaningful way about investment prospects for primary, secondary, tertiary metro markets? Is the '24-hour city' out of favour - why or why not? (What does the data say?)
- Debt Finance: Exposure to rate extremes in crisis, and subsequent risk in central bank adjustments.
- Volume of Capital Available as COVID-19 mitigation/stimulus altered savings rates: Asset price inflation beyond consumer price inflation?
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Submission window closes: 28 February 2023